Saturday, May 16, 2009

Asia, the growth engine

Demographics! This is what I learn from the book, The Great Depression Ahead by Harry Dent. Demographics cause this depression. 35 to 45 years are the economic drivers. They produce a lot of economic value-add and consume big ticket items like cars and houses. With houses, they will to equip themselves with other big ticket consumer durables like washing machines, tvs, computers, etc. Hmm! Makes a lot of sense to me.

The demographic study for China is China will grow old before growing rich. This is driven by the one child policy. When young population is smaller than the population age 65 and above, the economy will contract. House prices will drop. Is economy everything? Is money or wealth creation all that important. I wonder.

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